![]() ![]() Anger at those responsible for climate change.Chaos and injustice after climate-exacerbated disasters.Higher demand for people smugglers and armed border guards.More invidious restrictions on resources.More environmentally inhospitable areas.Food, water, and energy crises that undermine state capacity and legitimacy.This essay identifies six climate-related factors that will create openings and drive demand for VNSAs, a category that includes de facto states, insurgencies, criminal groups, warlord-led groups, private security companies, paramilitaries, and terrorists. Nonstate actors could respond to these developments by using violence, either to influence state behavior or to replace the role of the state in certain areas. In short, this is because climate impacts can impair governance in ways that reduce state capacity and legitimacy, intensify competition for resources and livable territory, and necessitate invidious policies. Climate change and the responses to it are likely to provide more openings for violent nonstate actors (VNSAs) to exert power. ![]()
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